Manning: on the decline?

Bill Barnwell published a fairly comprehensive and insightful analysis of the 2012 Denver Broncos a few days ago in Grantland. And as much as I want to see Manning silence the doubters and the cynics this season, I do agree with Barnwell that the Broncos are going to be hard pressed to make a serious SuperBowl run this year. I also agree with Barnwell’s suggestion that the Broncos will have a difficult time producing more wins this season than last year’s Tebow-led team; and both of these doubts are largely due to the Broncos having the projected hardest schedule in the league this year.

Now I’m a fan; but I’m also a realist. A tough schedule is not the only obstacle standing in the Broncos’ way. There are some hard facts that cannot be overlooked. Obviously the question on everyone’s mind is how Manning will bounce back from four neck surgeries. These major procedures affected Manning’s second-biggest weapon: his arm. (I would argue that his mind for the game is actually his biggest and most beneficial tool.) Prior to the 2011 season, Manning had started 208 consecutive games. In a league full of hard knocks, that’s a lot of hits, even for someone who is totally healthy. And we know now that Manning was not healthy; that he was fallible. So whether or not he can return to his pre-surgery form on an aging and banged up body remains to be seen. Which also brings about another point not to be overlooked — Manning’s age; he is 36 this season. Manning does not have to look any further than his front office and John Elway to know that you can still win a SuperBowl (and be its MVP) when you’re 37 and 38. And in a league that seems to promise you a career that spans no longer than a decade, Manning plays in what tends to be about the most age-forgiving position, other than a kicker. But Barnwell gives many examples of other QBs who, late in their career, switched teams and had a hard time adjusting or failed to do so altogether. Without going through that entire list, two words should be able to resonate this point with most people: Brett Favre.

Finally, there is the concern that Manning is playing with new teammates under new coaches with a somewhat new style of offense. Even a good QB has to have time to develop chemistry with his teammates and learn their nuances, as well as they learn his.

Barnwell goes on to argue that Manning has been experiencing a level of decline since the 2010 season: “It’s unquestionable that Manning was experiencing some level of decline during the 2010 season. His numbers, relative to the stats put up by the rest of the league, paled in comparison to the guy who was the best quarterback in NFL history from 2002 through 2009. Putting his performance in context versus the stats of a league-average passer¹ reveals just how great Manning was during his nine-year peak — and how average he was during that final disappointing season in Indy.”

Years	Y/Att	Cmp%	QB Rating	INT%
2002-09	19%	23%	25%	13%
2010	-2%	18%	9%	6%

1. Index stats per the “Advanced Passing” table for Manning at Pro-Football-Reference.com.

This is where my agreement with Barnwell comes to a screeching halt. It would seem he has statistics on his side, but l would argue that Manning’s stats from the 2010 season, along with other variables, would actually suggest otherwise. During that season, Peyton threw for 4,700 yds, which is his most in a single season to date. He completed 66.3% of his passes, including 33 TDs, all of which are in line with his 2002-2009 statistics. The only numbers that fall closer to outliers are his 17 INTs and his passer rating of 91.9 that year, both of which still fall into the range created by his 2002-2009 numbers, though these stats are not as good as some of his best performance figures during that time period. I would also say it is hard to refute that the NFL has largely evolved into a majority passing league, with elite QBs such as Manning and Brady having a key role in that development in more recent history. Therefore, if QBs such as those two are ahead of the curve, then, as the others catch up, it only makes sense that these leading QBs will come to look more and more average over time in a league that has caught up to their style of play.

However, what I feel is truly the biggest reflection on Manning’s and ultimately the Colts’ overall performance during the 2010 season is the obstacles they had to overcome just to have a full roster on the field come Sunday afternoon. 2010 was one of the most injury-plagued seasons for the Colts, with Manning making completions by the end of the season to teammates who were not even a blip on the Colts’ radar earlier in the season.

The most noticeable position in which the Colts suffered losses during the 2010 season was at the wide receiver slot. While Manning began the season with several returning faces in that spot, the injuries sustained in that position throughout the season resulted in an overall lack of consistency, experience, and depth. Veteran Reggie Wayne was Manning’s only constant at WR that year, starting all 16 games. Pierre Garçon, with two years’ professional experience and familiarity in the starting spot, was still prone to dropping balls, making him an unreliable target. He was also inactive during weeks 3 and 4 due to injury, resulting in Blair White having to be activated from the practice roster. Anthony Gonzalez, who earned a starting position in 2009 but was later placed on the IR roster due to a right-knee injury, lost his starting spot in 2010 due to the previous year’s injury, and was again placed on IR after he sustained a leg injury in week 8. Perhaps the hardest to watch that year was Austin Collie, who became Manning’s “go-to guy” following Dallas Clark’s injury (see below). Despite an increase in production, Collie sustained two serious concussions during the 2010 season, having to be carried off the field on a stretcher the first time, and laying motionless for several minutes following the second concussion. That second concussion ultimately led to him being placed on IR for the remainder of the season. As a result, Taj Smith was signed to the Colts’ roster late in 2010. At the time the Colts signed him, he was a free agent after being cut from their roster on roster cut down day earlier in the season.

The tight ends, whose stock has significantly increased in recent years thanks to QBs like Manning and Brady, fared no better. Tom Santi, originally considered to be one of the primary contenders for a reserve TE spot, had a hard time remaining healthy and was therefore placed on the waived-injured list by the Colts on August 2, 2010, before the season even began. Dallas Clark, the Colts’ record-breaking veteran TE, played just six games of the 2010 season before being placed on IR on October 22, 2010, following a season-ending wrist surgery. This moved Jacob Tamme into the starting TE slot, where he was backed up by rookies Jacques McClendon (who now plays guard for the Lions) and Brody Eldridge.

The Colts had depth problems at RB as well. Joseph Addai took several hard hits during the 2010 season, often leaving him dazed, sore, and sometimes even concussed. Because of this, he started just seven of the eight games he played during the 2010 season; every season prior or since he has started and/or played at least 12+ games, including his rookie season. Not surprisingly, he had his least productive stats during the 2010 season. Devin Moore, an Indianapolis-native, played just four games during the 2010 season and was placed on IR. Like at so many other positions on their roster, the Colts were grasping for straws. This time, though, their reach extended beyond their own practice roster. Javarris James, younger cousin of Edgerrin James, was waived from the Colts’ roster on September 4, 2010, during final cuts. From there he was signed to the Patriots’ and then Redskins’ practice rosters. The Colts signed him from the Redskins’ practice squad to their active roster on October 7, 2010. Late in the season, in what appeared to be a last-effort attempt to add depth at the RB position, Dominic Rhodes, a twice former Colt, was signed up from the UFL on December 7, 2010. He was just ten days removed from the UFL championship game.

All in all, the Colts ended the season with 19 players on their IR list, one of the two biggest IR lists in the league that season.

To wrap it all in a neat little box, it seems unfair to say that Manning is on a decline based solely on his 2010 statistics. His statistics from that season are in line with his 2002-2009 stats, during which he was one of the best in the league. While he did not vastly outperform his peers that season, for once he was more in line with them, more than likely because they had finally caught up to the style of play trail blazers such as Brady and himself had set forth. It also seems he had to work the hardest to create the most production out of the least amount of talent/experience/skill. Especially considering that the Colts targets to which Manning threw that season looked like they were constantly getting on and off the merry-go-round at a carnival, his statistics were no less impressive.

Yes, the Broncos do face a tough schedule, as well as some unknown variables in Manning. But to say that Manning is, with certainty, on a decline, is a stretch. And I know that if I think that, #18 will be out to prove that.

If Manning can repeatedly take the no-names and put them on the map, the Broncos should not yet be counted out. If he can make the unrecognizables greater than they would have been on their own, or even with an average QB leading them, there is still a chance. Jacob Tamme is the perfect example: from back-up, to starting slot, to regular target, to moving across the country with Manning to contend for a starting spot on a new team. Not to mention the argument for Tamme as a fantasy pick is already being made. But that is for another time.

*Stats used in this article that are not otherwise referenced were obtained from CBS Sports and espn.com.

Purdue: a tournament team?

At halftime of the Purdue MSU game yesterday, Andy Katz and Doug Gottlieb were discussing how the weather/travelling delays were seemingly a factor in Purdue’s performance. At which point Gottlieb said, “More concerning is, I really don’t know if Purdue’s an NCAA tournament team.”

Knife to my heart.

He went on to mention Purdue’s 20-point loss in Happy Valley to Penn State. He insisted, “at some point you’ve got to show us that you can win on the road in the Big Ten, and that’s the big question for them going forward if they’re going to be in the tournament.”

I can feel the knife twisting.

Boilermaker fans are all too familiar with Purdue’s losses this year. And not just the conference road game losses. Yes, there is the abysmal road loss to the Big Ten bottom-dwelling Nittany Lions. And yesterday’s 25-point loss in East Lansing certainly adds further credibility to and concern over Gottlieb’s comments. Two very convincing, double-digit Big Ten road losses.

There was also the one-bucket loss in the final second of the Butler game, which was a game Purdue led by double-digits at one point. Last week held a close home loss to Wisconsin for the Boilers, ending the then sixth-best active home win streak in the nation. And let’s not forget the shining moment earlier in the season when Purdue first and most likely seemed ready to break into the Top 25: on the road leading Xavier by 19, a game that Purdue lost in the final minute of the game.

Purdue is certainly familiar with tough losses this season, from big blow outs to blown leads. So I see Gottlieb’s point.

I am willing to concede that Purdue is down right now. But I’m not yet ready to count them out.

They had a very convincing 15-point win against Illinois at home in which they effectively shut down Meyers Leonard. They also had a solid 13-point road victory up in Minnesota. And even though they did lose the Xavier game, Purdue played as well as, and even better than, their nationally ranked opponent for much of the game. In a hostile environment.

Purdue has managed to win 14 games while competing in one of the best conferences college hoops has to offer, a conference in which they are certain to accumulate at least a few more solid victories before all is said and done.

However, they are at a crucial point in their conference play. On Tuesday they have #19 Michigan at home. I had a lot of respect for what Michigan was doing last year when they made a run for a tournament seed at the end of the season, and they have only built on that this year, consistently garnering a Top 25 slot to-date. They only game that might offer any relief is at Northwestern next Saturday. But Big Ten road games are brutal. And this is a Northwestern team that brought MSU’s 15-game win streak to a screeching halt just a week ago in Evanston. Purdue will follow that road game up by hosting #13 Indiana, which is always an intense rivalry game whether or not both teams are on par with one another for the year. Following the Hoosiers, Purdue has to play at Value City Arena against #6 OSU, who has not lost at home yet this year.

There are no hand-outs in this league. Which is why if you emerge from the Big Ten with an invitation to the Big Dance, you have earned your right to that seed.

I believe Purdue is certainly still capable of being a tournament team, but they will need performances much better than yesterday’s to make a strong case to the tournament selection committee come March.

hello, Boiler nation.

14-5. That is where Purdue men’s basketball stands heading into a tough stretch of conference play. Four of their next five opponents are currently ranked in the Top 20, and three of those next five games are on the road in some of the toughest venues to play in college hoops.

The Big Ten this year has more uncertainty than the NBA has excessively tattooed athletes. On any given night, the conference landscape can change more rapidly and frequently than you girlfriend changes outfits (and you’re only going to dinner).

Even with the loss of Johnson and Moore, Purdue has been holding their own in arguably the deepest conference in the country, and they have the potential to be a more capable team than their seeding would indicate going into March Madness.

Here are some keys I see to Purdue finishing out conference play strong:

-DEFENSE.

Painter has built this organization on that one word. And by it everything else seems to either stand or fall. When Purdue plays solid D, they force their opponents into taking poor shots with time running out. Since unwise shots infrequently result in points, this also gives Purdue the chance to build/extend a lead with less time remaining, the advantage of the elongated college shot clock. Purdue’s stifling D also generates turnover opportunities. This is crucial to offsetting some of the offensive shortcomings Purdue has already experienced this year, both within games and over the course of the season. Turnovers can lead to fast breaks, easy buckets, a trip to the foul line, or the killer combo of all of these: the three-point play. I would say these are all easy point opportunities, but free throws are currently a point of contention for the Boilermakers. Read on….

-BENCH POINTS.

Purdue’s leading scorer, Robbie Hummel, has struggled of late, although during one stretch of the Iowa game last night he did show signs of his pre-ACL shooting streaks. The contest for second- and third-leading scorer is currently pretty dead even between Ryne Smith and Lewis Jackson at 10.2 and 10.0 PPG, respectively. Because Purdue’s current senior class (Hummel, Smith, and Jackson) combines on average for as many points as the senior class of last year (Johnson and Moore), but takes one additional person to do so, bench points are more crucial this year than in the recent past.

When Purdue’s bench steps in, Purdue is effective, as proven by DJ Byrd’s performances at Iowa, home vs. Illinois, and in Minnesota. In those games he had 14, nine, and 18 points respectively, shooting anywhere from 66.7% to 75% from the field. He was also 40%, 66.7% and 88.3% from the 3-point arc in those games. Purdue won all three of those games, the latter two games by a decisive double-digit margin.

Terone Johnson is stepping up in the points column this year as Purdue’s current fifth-leading scorer despite being the sixth man. He has scored in double-digits the last three games in a row, including a career-high 16 points against Wisconsin, a game in which he was Purdue’s leading scorer. This type of point contribution is a trend he will need to continue in order to keep Purdue competitive on the offensive side of the ball. See POINTS IN THE PAINT and FREE THROWS below for additional ways I feel T. Johnson can contribute offensively.

-POINTS IN THE PAINT.

Sure, you don’t replace a JaJuan Johnson in a year. But Purdue has to learn to get more points in the paint, whether it’s from a big guy down low or having their guards take it to the hole themselves. I understand that the bulk of Purdue’s offensive success comes from the three-point arc, but for most teams the likelihood of a made shot exponentially increases the closer they get to the bucket (granted, I did say most teams).

So let’s examine the bigs. Travis Carroll has shown increasing toughness in recent games, but at times I still question whether or not he has the fortitude that it takes to play in as physical a conference as the Big Ten. Jacob Lawson has impressed me as a freshman, and he exudes potential, but he has a hard time staying out of foul trouble. Under Painter he is guaranteed to become a smarter and more capable defender, but change doesn’t happen overnight. He needs time and experience to learn and grow. It was good to see Marcius back last night, but he did not play much and continues to battle health problems, so it’s hard to know where his contributions stand. And don’t forget the absence of Bade’s body in the paint, after deciding he wanted to go throw a pigskin around for the school instead (how did that work out for you by the way, Bade?).

Which leaves it up to the guards. Despite his size, Lewis Jackson is a great example of taking it to the hole, and he has the speed to pull it off more times than he gets stuffed. That being said, his smaller size can play a factor, and he has been playing long enough in the conference that opponents are more readily prepared and even expectant to have to defend such a drive. Which is why players like Kelsey Barlow, Terone Johnson, and Anthony Johnson all need to take more initiative as well.

Barlow and T. Johnson both have the size to beat an opponent down the lane one-on-one, though they have both struggled at times with converting the points. A. Johnson does not have as strong of a presence as the other two, which is to be expected since his red shirt last year means he has less experience playing at this level. But he has shown a surprising knack for driving to the hole, only to pull up short and rattle in a solid 3- to 5-foot jumper. Points in the paint count the same whether they are lay-ups or jump shots, so more power to A. Johnson if he chooses to take the road less traveled to get them.

I thought Kelsey Barlow did a great job of consistently driving to the hoop last night during the Iowa game, which reflected in his 11 point contribution. He was also seemingly the only one to not give up in Saturday’s home loss to Wisconsin, repeatedly penetrating the lane in the final minute or two of the game even once the outcome became imminent.

Of these three players mentioned, only Barlow consistently starts, which supports the importance of bench points. It is also important to note that even if Purdue cannot convert their paint shots, the likelihood of drawing contact from the defender increases exponentially once inside the box. Which leads to…

-FREE THROWS.

If Purdue has a woe spot, this for sure is it. As a team they are shooting a whopping 61.9% from the foul line — worst in the Big Ten. not exactly championship caliber. Terone Johnson is currently shooting 34.6% from the line, tied for worst on the team with Jacob Lawson (9-26). Carroll has only ten FT attempts all season, proof that the bigs are not Purdue’s primary scoring strategy. Meanwhile, T. Johnson has 52 FT attempts to-date. The team’s best FT shooter, Ryne Smith (83.3%) has been to the line only 18 times all season, and since he is a predominantly 3-point shooter, that number does not seem to be on the up-and-up any time soon. Hummel, who typically excels in this area, is second on the team at 77.6% (52-67). When the outcome of a game comes down to free throw conversions at the end, this is probably not the team on which you would want to bet your paycheck.

If you are Painter, I assume you have FT drills incorporated as part of practice, but it may be time to take more dramatic measures. For example, not allowing the team to leave practice until a minimum number of consecutive free throws are made by various players might seem like an elementary task, but can be a tall order for a team averaging under 62%. The longer the players are stuck there, one can only hope the more they will come to realize the significance of mental focus and toughness to power through a task, as they watch the precious moments of their day tick away. The mental aspect of free throws seems like it should be a key area of focus. Especially with as good of a player as T. Johnson is, his FT shortcomings seem to indicate a mental block. Besides, repetition never hurt anyone. Practice makes perfect, and I would be okay with even settling for improvement versus perfection in this instance.

So that is it in a nutshell. Or in a not-so-nutshell. There is always more that can be said, but I feel these are the key points. Purdue did several of these things much better against Iowa in the second half of last night’s game, and they were able to turn the game around as a result. And sweep Iowa in the season series as well. No small feat in the Big Ten.

Think I missed anything big? Feel free to share.

welcome, sports fans.

okay, so I am obviously new at this. but I love sports. and I love writing. and my English degree has been collecting dust for the past four and a half years. so I am going to attempt to combine two things I love to do my tuition $$$ some justice, and hopefully along the way a few other people might have some fun as well.

I will disclose up front that I have a strong bias toward the Colts and my alma mater, Purdue. so this blog may not be for you. My intention is not to offend or infuriate with my words, though I’m sure at times I will. I love most sports, but will predominantly write about my teams with my own slant. my blog. my prerogative.

The great thing about the internet is that it’s free. If you don’t like it, start your own blog.

Feel free to leave feedback, but keep in mind that I write for entertainment and not to ruin people’s days, so please follow the same principles with your comments.

I look forward to hearing from you, and hope at some point you may feel the same way about hearing what I have to say.

Let’s do this.